Up the Wrong Tree: Erik Bedard, 100 pitch pony?

Seattle manager John McLaren spouted off some frustration the other day at starter Erik Bedard:

I think that’s basically what he is… That’s the way he was in Baltimore. Basically, he’s programmed to go 100 pitches… There’s not an easy way to put it. I’d love to see him go further, but if he’s not capable, he’s not capable….There’s no use dwelling on it. It is what it is. He’s a 100-pitch pitcher.

But is he barking up the wrong tree? First, it should be noted that most pitchers do not go much beyond 100 pitches anyway. If they did, Tommy John surgeons would be even richer than they are already. We should see how Bedard ranks in terms of pitches per start. From 2005 to today, Bedard ranks 27th among pitchers who have started at least 40 games in pitches per game started at 101.4. This is pretty close to Roy Halladay and Dontrelle Willis at 101.5. The most durable pitcher during this period has been Carlos Zambrano, who has thrown an average of 107.8 pitches over his 115 starts. After the top 10, pitches/GS drops to 103.8 pitches per start, and Brett Myers is 20th with 102.3 in his 83 starts. Bedard looks pretty durable to me in this regard.

Bedard is not a huge guy at 6-1, 186, and stamina could be an issue compared to someone with a bigger frame. In his career, Bedard has topped 100 pitches 79 times, 105 pitches 57 times, and 110 pitches 31 times in 123 career starts. That ranks him 21st, 18th, and 22nd among starters during that time frame. Consider that Bedard pitched about 10-20 fewer starts than most pitchers over that period, and his percentage of games over 100 pitches is pretty darn good.

Are McLaren’s comments performance-related? Does Bedard just suck after 100 pitches? Hitters are 0-10 with two walks this season when Bedard’s gone past 100 pitches this year, and hitting just .115/.179/.192 on pitches 75-100. Stamina doesn’t appear to be much of an issue, unless Bedard’s just not willing to go out when needed for the extra frame. In his career, he’s held hitters to a .226/.281/.350 line after pitch 100 in 193 plate appearances, and from pitches 75-100, they hit .257/.329/.393 (in a sample size that was more than 3x greater, of course).

Look at his game logs, and you’ll see that Bedard has failed to go 5 innings in three of his starts this season. On May 12, he lasted just 2+ innings at Texas and was yanked after just 64 pitches and giving up a 5-run lead. On May 23, the surging Yankees touched him for 9 runs in New York, and on June 3 the Angels took advantage of poor control to score 5 (4 earned) in Seattle. Bedard’s walk rate is up this year, but his other peripherals aren’t far off his career norms. I think McLaren’s comments are more out of frustration over these starts than anything else. Any manager that talks about his players like this publicly without reason or justification ought to be fired.