Ready for the Big Time: 2007 PA/XBH Leaders (Triple-A)

Looking at plate appearances per extra base hit is one of the key indicators of a minor league player’s readiness to contribute at the Major League level. A player who produces a lot of extra base hits is more likely to hit the ball harder, exhibit good bat control and control the strike zone. Pair this with a high BB% (of course strikeouts are bad, but I put less stock in BB:SO ratio, since a lot of good hitters also whiff a lot), and I think you have a good indication of who is likely to be ready to handle big league pitching.

Take the case of Albert Pujols in his only minor league season in 2000, at the age of 20. He hit .314/.373/.543 at three levels, and amassed 67 XBH in just 536 PA, a ratio of 8.00 PA/XBH. He also walked 46 times, or 8.58% of the time. He came up the next season to hit .329/.403/.610 with 37 HR while making the All-Star team as a rookie and handily winning the NL Rookie of the Year. I’m not saying that each of these hitters can do the same this season, but some of them may be capable.

I took the top 100 OPS players from last season, calculated PA/XBH and BB%, and sorted. Here is everyone under the age of 25 who came up under 8.50 PA/XBH by age:

Age  Name             PA/XBH  BB%   ISO   PA
20   Jay Bruce        8.16     7.4  .262  204
21   Adam Jones       8.09     7.7  .272  470
22   Matt Kemp        7.57     5.7  .211  174
23   Jed Lowrie       8.05     6.8  .206  177
23   Nate Schierholtz 8.13     3.9  .227  441
23   Andy LaRoche     8.41    12.5  .280  311
24   Geovany Soto     7.48    11.8  .299  447
24   Brett Carroll    7.52     5.2  .282  344
24   Donnie Murphy    8.29     8.5  .183  201

Pretty select group, at least until age 24 or so. Even then, you can use BB% and ISO to weed out the less promising types.

Jay Bruce, in his age 20 season, had a PA/XBH of 8.16 and BB% of 7.35 in 204 PA at Triple-A (Pujols had just 103 AB above single-A). He was the only 20-year old at that level to crack the top 100 in OPS last season. That should help you understand why people are so excited about this guy.